Is there a direct correlation between Google’s organic results and Google’s AI Overview answers?

Is there a direct correlation between Google’s organic results and Google’s AI Overview answers?

July 30, 2025

 

Author: Ryan Walsh
Subject: Google AI Overviews
Date: 30/07/2025

 

The theory

There’s a theory doing the rounds, and from first inspection, it just makes perfect sense to the layperson.

The theory is this: if your business is currently ranked high in Google’s organic results, you’re business is more likely to be mentioned as a citation in Google’s AI Overview answers.

This got our cogs turning, especially after reading about an in-depth experiment run by Ahrefs.

However, we have to issue a spoiler alert; there does seem to be some correlation, but not as much as you might initially think.

Ahrefs conducted a massive test to examine the correlation between a business ranking in the top 10 organic results and whether those businesses were subsequently cited within Google’s AI Overview answers.

The findings stated that within the top 3 AI Overview results the correlation with the top 10 organic results was a correlation of just 0.347.

We owe a debt of gratitude to Ahrefs’ research, as it enables us, marketing companies, to begin to understand the inner mechanics of how Google AI Overviews works.

Their findings also indicated that even businesses ranking 1st position within the organic results then go on to appear in the top three results of Google’s AI Overview links about 50% of the time.

 

What does this tell us about the inner workings and mechanics of Google AI Overviews?

It does suggest a correlation between ranking high organically and being mentioned/cited in the Google AI Overviews.

However, it’s not everything; it’s not a cast-iron guarantee that if your business is dominant in the organic results, you’re instantly going to appear as a superstar in Google’s AI Overviews.

There’s more to it; there are more ranking factors at work.

We speculate that it’s due to Google’s Knowledge Graph working with Google’s AI technology, Gemini.

 

How do you increase your chances of being cited in Google AI Overviews?

Google’s E-EAT guidance and read more about the semantic web.

Why we think the semantic web is key to how AI Overviews work:

When I first started talking about the semantic web, it was around 10 years ago. Now, the semantic web and AI seem to be working together to form some very tailored responses, i.e synthesised responses directly displayed in the AI Overviews.

 

What is the semantic web?

In the SEO profession, we focus on links and content marketing, which are, of course, essential parts of the optimisation process.
However, the semantic web is like taking a birds-eye view, looking down and working out which businesses and people are simply getting mentioned the most.

Who are the thought leaders in that business sector? Which businesses are head and shoulders above the rest?

Another way of phrasing this is, which “entities” are the biggest and brightest names in that industry?

This is the question that Google’s AI is asking. ?

 

Entity building

This was where the term “entity building” became widely cited around 10 years ago.

Then there was another famous saying circulating among agencies at the time, which was “optimise for things and not strings,”.

We all like to think that Google AI Overviews is a brand-new technology. To an extent, this is true; however, we believe what’s powering the answers in Google Knowledge Graph has been around for a long time.

 

“Optimise for Things, not strings”.

This saying aims to shift the focus away from relying on backlinks as a sign of being an authoritative business.

Now, in 2025, links are still important. With that said, your business needs to define its entity and think about entity building.

 

Here’s how you do that:

– Business mentions/brand mentions / key staff mentions
– Powerful backlinks are still important
– Make it clear that you are experts in that business sector through industry-leading thought leadership and content marketing

 

Shine bright like a diamond.

What would you recommend are the best ways of getting cited more often in Google’s AI Overviews?

Turn staff members / your brand into a celebrity 

 

What do we mean by that statement?

Well, entity building in the semantic web works on the basis that if an author/brand is widely cited as offering top-quality advice, they become almost like a celebrity in that business sector.

They may lend their opinions and thoughts to journalists, other businesses, and on social media regarding their profession or products.

The more times “Ryan Walsh” appears as a mentioned source relating to SEO, the more prominent Ryan becomes in the semantic web. It’s also thought that this knowledge of who is the “bee’s knees” in each industry is stored in Google’s Knowledge Graph.

 

Knowledge Graph

 

Google, therefore, doesn’t just rely on its organic index to supply an answer to a query.

Google also has vast swaths of knowledge stored in its “Knowledge Vault” and “Knowledge Graph”.

This could be from a comment made to a journalist, from a widely shared social media post, or from a blog post you have written. The most important thing to remember here is that Google has defined that person or brand as the expert, the best expert or the best source of information regarding that product or service.

This means offering thought leadership.

Participating in podcasts, being active on YouTube, and engaging on social media all contribute to establishing yourself as a mini-celebrity in your business sector. Or, as the case might be, a big celebrity – it all depends on how far you want to take it.

The point being made here is that you have to stand out, you have to be the brightest light on that semantic web.
At this point, your voice by Google has been deemed reliable and worth listening to, which is why we believe you are more likely to be cited in

 

Google AI Overview answers.

“AI Overviews aren’t simply repacking the top results”

We refer back to Ahrefs’ comprehensive research regarding this matter, and a line written by Si Quan Ong at Ahrefs, that is “AI Overviews aren’t simply repacking the top results”. This refers to Google’s organic results, and that one line neatly summarises the whole point of this article.

We believe that it’s about transforming your business into a thought leader, an authority, and the brightest light on the semantic web.
This means optimising for different ranking factors, such as ensuring your business brand and key staff are mentioned across the web.

 

Be as active as possible across many different marketing media

If you were just to keep writing long blog posts, well, you could be considered a one-trick pony.
In Google’s eyes, it doesn’t know how good this content marketing is because you haven’t worked on the “authority” of the page or the website as a whole.

Improving authority is about building links, yet as the article serves to illustrate, it’s more than this.
It’s about standing out from the crowd and being recognised as the best, having demonstrated your knowledge as one of the best. Lending your thoughts on podcasts, LinkedIn, and, for example, an article published on a leading publisher’s website.

SEO is not dead; we think it’s just getting started.

 

About the Author:

Ryan Walsh has been a successful SEO consultant for close to 14 years. He enjoys reading and learning about how Google is changing and evolving. Whether it’s LLMs, GEO or organic results you want to optimise or learn more about, we are the business to work with.

Call Walsh and Partners today.